Hello. I'm Fabien Petit.

Abstract: The increase in employment polarization observed in several high-income economies has coincided with a reduction in inter-generational mobility. This paper argues that the disappearance of middling jobs can drive changes in mobility, notably by removing a stepping-stone towards high-paying occupations for those from less well-off family backgrounds. Using data for two British cohorts we examine how the occupational outcomes of children depend on both initial occupations and occupational upgrading during their careers. We find that transitions across occupations are key for mobility and that the effect of parental income on those transitions has become stronger over time. Moreover, the impact of parental income increased the most in the regions where the share of middling employment fell the most, suggesting that greater employment polarization may be one of the factors behind the observed decline in mobility.

Abstract: This paper measures the exposure of industries and occupations to a broad set of emerging digital technologies and estimates their impact on European employment. Using a novel approach that leverages sentence transformers, we calculate exposure scores based on the semantic similarity between patents and international standard classifications, creating the open-access `TechXposure' database. Through a shift-share design, we instrument regional exposure to estimate the effects of these technologies on employment across European regions. We find a net positive impact, with growth in low- and high-skilled employment at the expense of middle-skilled jobs, suggesting ongoing job polarization. At the technology level, we observe significant heterogeneity: robots and machine learning negatively impact employment (except for high-skilled workers), while workflow management and information processing systems have positive effects. Our results suggest that focusing narrowly on specific technologies like AI and robots may overlook broader positive employment impacts stemming from complementarities among diverse digital technologies.

Abstract: This paper estimates the exposure of US occupations and industries to emerging digital technologies and their impact on US commuting zone (CZ) employment. Building upon the natural language processing approach introduced by Prytkova et al. (2024), we estimate the exposure of O*NET-SOC occupations and NAICS industries, thereby extending the open–access `TechXposure' database to the US context. Using this new data source, we apply a shift-share design to instrument the CZ exposure to emerging digital technologies and estimate their employment impact across CZs between 2012 and 2019. We find that digital technologies have an overall positive net impact on US employment. However, the impact varies among different worker demographics: while there is a noticeable decline in employment for core working-age (25–44) and non-college-educated workers in more exposed CZs, we observe employment increases for younger (16–24) and older (45–64) workers, as well as for those with a college education.

Abstract: This paper explores how life events change values and social identity when both are endogenous, i.e. when individuals identify with a social group based on shared values. Life events may introduce new information that shifts a value central to their social identity, misaligning individuals with their current social group’s values. Consequently, individuals may align with a new group, affecting previously unchanged values and creating spillover effects. Using cohort data, I find that life events, such as parenthood or sickness, significantly alter values and social identity. Overlooking the interdependence between values underestimates the extent to which life experiences affect individuals.

Abstract: This paper analyzes how the impacts of ICT, Software & Databases, and Robots on European regional labor markets (1995–2017) vary across technology life cycle phases. Motivated by theories predicting shifting skill biases between early adoption and maturity, we first identify major technological breakthroughs and delineate their life cycle phases (early vs. maturity) based on investment growth patterns. Using a shift-share instrumental variable approach, we estimate phase-specific impacts of regional technology exposure on employment and wages. While confirming that effects differ significantly across phases, we find only partial support for standard skill-bias predictions during early adoption. Our results highlight the importance of analyzing dynamics within specific technology life cycles to understand the heterogeneous short-term labor market adjustments often obscured in aggregated long-run analyses.

Abstract: This paper examines the labor market adjustments to four automation technologies (i.e. robots, communication technology, information technology, and software/database) in 227 regions across 22 European countries from 1995 to 2017. By constructing a measure of technology penetration, we estimate changes in regional employment and wages affected by automation technologies along with the reallocation of workers between sectors. We find that labor market adjustments to automation technologies differ according to i) the technology involved, ii) the sector of penetration, iii) the sectoral composition of the region, and iv) the region's technological capabilities. These adjustments are driven largely by the reallocation of low-paid workers across sectors.

Abstract: This paper argues that the decline in the labor income share since the 1970s is a consequence of the emergence of a relatively larger generation, the Baby Boomers, compared to other cohorts. I develop an OLG model in which public policy is endogenously shaped by the population's age structure through voting. When young, Baby Boomers vote to increase unemployment benefits to mitigate unemployment risk, raising the value of their outside option in wage bargaining and enabling them to negotiate higher wages. Firms respond by substituting labor with capital to limit workers' rent appropriation, causing a decline in the labor share. Once the Boomers retire, this effect reverses but is offset by capital accumulation driven by the Boomers' high savings rates, fueled by higher wages, further reducing the labor share. Calibrated for France and the United States, the model's simulations replicate the observed decline in labor share and labor market dynamics. The model predicts that, from 2020 onward, approximately one percentage point of labor income share will shift to capital income every 20 years, on average, through the end of the 21st century.